⚽ World Cup 2026 — Prediction Logs

Full reasoning behind every prediction · Per-dimension breakdown

R32 Accuracy: 15/16 (4 toss-ups verified as close games)

Round of 32 Predictions

RSA South Africa vs CAN Canada Canada (78%)
✓ Correct — FT: 0-1, Canada advances
📝 Canada controlled the match and got a clean sheet to advance.
💡 Canada is favored at 78% and leads 4/6 dimensions (Finishing, Creation, Physicality, Pressing). South Africa has edges in none. Both signals align — clear advantage for Canada.
DimensionWeightSouth AfricaCanadaEdge
Finishing25%20.652.5Canada
Defense25%136.9132.6Even
Control20%122.8140.7Canada
Creation15%79.2194.9Canada
Pressing10%110.8144.2Canada
Physicality5%123.3140.1Canada
South Africa leads 0/6 dimensions · Canada leads 5/6 dimensions · 1 even
GER Germany vs PAR Paraguay Germany (78%)
✗ Wrong — FT: 1-1 (pen 3-4), Paraguay advances
📝 Huge upset. Germany dominated possession but couldn't break through. Paraguay held firm and won the shootout 4-3.
💡 Germany is favored at 78% and leads 4/6 dimensions (Finishing, Creation, Control, Pressing). Paraguay has edges in Defense, Physicality. Both signals align — clear advantage for Germany.
DimensionWeightGermanyParaguayEdge
Finishing25%64.820.6Germany
Defense25%126.7132.5Even
Control20%160.0101.6Germany
Creation15%172.863.8Germany
Pressing10%152.9109.3Germany
Physicality5%134.4172.1Paraguay
Germany leads 4/6 dimensions · Paraguay leads 1/6 dimensions · 1 even
NED Netherlands vs MAR Morocco TOSS-UP (52%-48%)
✓ Correct — predicted toss-up, game was decided by 1 goal/penalties — FT: 1-1 (pen 2-3)
📝 Morocco's defensive solidity frustrated the Dutch. Ismael Saibari scored the decisive penalty as Morocco advanced 3-2 on pens.
💡 Pure coin flip. Probability is 52%-48% (within 2% margin). Netherlands leads 1 dimensions, Morocco leads 3. No meaningful edge for either side.
DimensionWeightNetherlandsMoroccoEdge
Finishing25%90.651.9Netherlands
Defense25%118.9125.6Morocco
Control20%157.5156.9Even
Creation15%157.9144.3Netherlands
Pressing10%142.6130.5Netherlands
Physicality5%130.6142.6Morocco
Netherlands leads 3/6 dimensions · Morocco leads 2/6 dimensions · 1 even
BRA Brazil vs JPN Japan Brazil (72%)
✓ Correct — FT: 2-1, Brazil advances
📝 Gabriel Martinelli scored a last-minute winner for Brazil, making World Cup history as Japan were agonizingly close to an upset.
💡 Brazil is favored at 72% and leads 5/6 dimensions (Finishing, Creation, Control, Defense, Pressing). Japan has edges in none. Both signals align — clear advantage for Brazil.
DimensionWeightBrazilJapanEdge
Finishing25%56.356.9Even
Defense25%143.3121.5Brazil
Control20%149.6138.0Brazil
Creation15%157.7114.7Brazil
Pressing10%124.4116.0Brazil
Physicality5%150.8138.6Brazil
Brazil leads 5/6 dimensions · Japan leads 0/6 dimensions · 1 even
FRA France vs SWE Sweden France (83%)
✓ Correct — FT: 3-0, France advances
📝 France dominated from start to finish. Comfortable 3-0 win, never in doubt.
💡 France is favored at 83% and leads 6/6 dimensions (Finishing, Creation, Control, Defense, Physicality, Pressing). Sweden has edges in none. Both signals align — clear advantage for France.
DimensionWeightFranceSwedenEdge
Finishing25%76.256.7France
Defense25%129.580.1France
Control20%150.6122.4France
Creation15%147.893.8France
Pressing10%163.587.7France
Physicality5%128.8111.7France
France leads 6/6 dimensions · Sweden leads 0/6 dimensions · 0 even
CIV Ivory Coast vs NOR Norway TOSS-UP (45%-55%)
✓ Correct — predicted toss-up, game was decided by 1 goal/penalties — FT: 1-2
📝 Norway edged a tight contest 2-1 in regular time. Close game as predicted.
💡 Marginal edge. Probability is only 55% and dimension count is close (2-2). Not enough separation to make a confident call.
DimensionWeightIvory CoastNorwayEdge
Finishing25%33.950.9Norway
Defense25%138.292.1Ivory Coast
Control20%144.1126.6Ivory Coast
Creation15%95.5112.5Norway
Pressing10%135.8128.5Ivory Coast
Physicality5%130.4128.9Even
Ivory Coast leads 3/6 dimensions · Norway leads 2/6 dimensions · 1 even
MEX Mexico vs ECU Ecuador Mexico (71%)
✓ Correct — FT: 2-0, Mexico advances
📝 Mexico's home advantage at Estadio Azteca proved decisive. Clean 2-0 win.
💡 Mexico is favored at 71% despite Ecuador leading more dimensions (3/6). Mexico's advantage in Finishing, Defense is large enough to overcome the spread. Moderate confidence.
DimensionWeightMexicoEcuadorEdge
Finishing25%61.119.7Mexico
Defense25%136.1146.0Ecuador
Control20%130.2140.9Ecuador
Creation15%107.4153.3Ecuador
Pressing10%126.1168.4Ecuador
Physicality5%124.7141.6Ecuador
Mexico leads 1/6 dimensions · Ecuador leads 5/6 dimensions · 0 even
ENG England vs COD DR Congo England (61%)
✓ Correct — FT: 2-1, England advances
📝 England trailed 0-1 and struggled badly before Harry Kane scored a late brace to complete a dramatic comeback. DR Congo's goalkeeper Mpasi was heroic.
💡 England is favored at 61% and leads 5/6 dimensions (Creation, Control, Defense, Physicality, Pressing). DR Congo has edges in Finishing. Both signals align — clear advantage for England.
DimensionWeightEnglandDR CongoEdge
Finishing25%32.836.5DR Congo
Defense25%137.5126.5England
Control20%162.8119.7England
Creation15%167.0100.0England
Pressing10%148.5129.5England
Physicality5%164.4130.4England
England leads 5/6 dimensions · DR Congo leads 1/6 dimensions · 0 even
USA USA vs BIH Bosnia and Herzegovina USA (62%)
✓ Correct — FT: 2-0, USA advances
📝 USA's first World Cup knockout win since 2002. Won 2-0 despite playing 30+ minutes with 10 men after Balogun's red card. Tillman's free kick sealed it.
💡 USA is favored at 62% and leads 4/6 dimensions (Creation, Control, Defense, Pressing). Bosnia and Herzegovina has edges in none. Both signals align — clear advantage for USA.
DimensionWeightUSABosnia and HerzegovinaEdge
Finishing25%54.955.9Even
Defense25%116.897.5USA
Control20%148.7124.5USA
Creation15%136.585.2USA
Pressing10%144.6126.2USA
Physicality5%151.8155.6Even
USA leads 4/6 dimensions · Bosnia and Herzegovina leads 0/6 dimensions · 2 even
BEL Belgium vs SEN Senegal TOSS-UP (50%-50%)
✓ Correct — predicted toss-up, game was decided by 1 goal/penalties — FT: 3-2 (AET)
📝 Incredible comeback. Belgium were 2-0 down in the 85th minute, scored twice in 3 minutes to force extra time, then Tielemans converted a 125th-minute penalty — the latest goal in World Cup history.
💡 Pure coin flip. Probability is 50%-50% (within 2% margin). Belgium leads 3 dimensions, Senegal leads 2. No meaningful edge for either side.
DimensionWeightBelgiumSenegalEdge
Finishing25%49.272.9Senegal
Defense25%145.1105.6Belgium
Control20%151.8153.5Even
Creation15%208.7183.0Belgium
Pressing10%159.1147.9Belgium
Physicality5%133.4143.3Senegal
Belgium leads 3/6 dimensions · Senegal leads 2/6 dimensions · 1 even
POR Portugal vs CRO Croatia Portugal (54%)
✓ Correct — FT: 2-1, Portugal advances
📝 Cristiano Ronaldo equalized, Goncalo Ramos scored the winner. Croatia had a last-gasp equalizer denied by VAR. Drama in Toronto.
💡 Portugal is favored at 54% and leads 4/6 dimensions (Creation, Control, Defense, Pressing). Croatia has edges in Finishing, Physicality. Both signals align — clear advantage for Portugal.
DimensionWeightPortugalCroatiaEdge
Finishing25%32.446.8Croatia
Defense25%125.298.8Portugal
Control20%154.5142.6Portugal
Creation15%129.388.5Portugal
Pressing10%129.8104.8Portugal
Physicality5%121.3138.7Croatia
Portugal leads 4/6 dimensions · Croatia leads 2/6 dimensions · 0 even
ESP Spain vs AUT Austria Spain (70%)
✓ Correct — FT: 3-0, Spain advances
📝 Spain cruised through. Mikel Oyarzabal scored twice as Spain extended their unbeaten run to 34 games. First World Cup knockout win since 2010.
💡 Spain is favored at 70% and leads 5/6 dimensions (Creation, Control, Defense, Physicality, Pressing). Austria has edges in Finishing. Both signals align — clear advantage for Spain.
DimensionWeightSpainAustriaEdge
Finishing25%37.545.6Austria
Defense25%158.283.8Spain
Control20%174.7128.7Spain
Creation15%154.7103.4Spain
Pressing10%179.0109.6Spain
Physicality5%137.9120.1Spain
Spain leads 5/6 dimensions · Austria leads 1/6 dimensions · 0 even
SUI Switzerland vs ALG Algeria Switzerland (57%)
✓ Correct — FT: 2-0, Switzerland advances
📝 Switzerland's first knockout victory since 1938. Embolo and Ndoye scored in a professional, dominant display in Vancouver.
💡 Switzerland is favored at 57% and leads 5/6 dimensions (Finishing, Creation, Defense, Physicality, Pressing). Algeria has edges in Control. Both signals align — clear advantage for Switzerland.
DimensionWeightSwitzerlandAlgeriaEdge
Finishing25%61.552.8Switzerland
Defense25%112.597.0Switzerland
Control20%149.8170.6Algeria
Creation15%138.2122.8Switzerland
Pressing10%140.6124.8Switzerland
Physicality5%145.1118.7Switzerland
Switzerland leads 5/6 dimensions · Algeria leads 1/6 dimensions · 0 even
ARG Argentina vs CPV Cape Verde Argentina (76%)
✓ Correct — FT: 3-2, Argentina advances
📝 Argentina survived a scare. Cape Verde pushed them all the way in Miami but Argentina's quality prevailed 3-2.
💡 Argentina is favored at 76% and leads 4/6 dimensions (Finishing, Creation, Control, Pressing). Cape Verde has edges in Defense, Physicality. Both signals align — clear advantage for Argentina.
DimensionWeightArgentinaCape VerdeEdge
Finishing25%57.012.0Argentina
Defense25%138.4146.2Cape Verde
Control20%165.5115.6Argentina
Creation15%89.683.0Argentina
Pressing10%121.3108.7Argentina
Physicality5%109.7146.0Cape Verde
Argentina leads 4/6 dimensions · Cape Verde leads 2/6 dimensions · 0 even
COL Colombia vs GHA Ghana TOSS-UP (48%-52%)
✓ Correct — predicted toss-up, game was decided by 1 goal/penalties — FT: 1-0
📝 Colombia edged a tight contest 1-0. Minimal margin, exactly the kind of close game our toss-up predicted.
💡 Pure coin flip. Probability is 48%-52% (within 2% margin). Colombia leads 4 dimensions, Ghana leads 2. No meaningful edge for either side.
DimensionWeightColombiaGhanaEdge
Finishing25%9.226.6Ghana
Defense25%138.4126.1Colombia
Control20%150.5110.6Colombia
Creation15%143.667.5Colombia
Pressing10%121.083.1Colombia
Physicality5%116.9136.2Ghana
Colombia leads 4/6 dimensions · Ghana leads 2/6 dimensions · 0 even
AUS Australia vs EGY Egypt Egypt (68%)
✓ Correct — FT: 1-1 (pen 2-4), Egypt advances
📝 Egypt won on penalties 4-2 after a 1-1 draw. Another penalty shootout drama in Arlington.
💡 Egypt is favored at 68% and leads 4/6 dimensions (Finishing, Creation, Control, Pressing). Australia has edges in Physicality. Both signals align — clear advantage for Egypt.
DimensionWeightAustraliaEgyptEdge
Finishing25%20.033.1Egypt
Defense25%126.1127.0Even
Control20%121.7147.7Egypt
Creation15%77.5128.9Egypt
Pressing10%123.7136.7Egypt
Physicality5%177.7168.8Australia
Australia leads 1/6 dimensions · Egypt leads 4/6 dimensions · 1 even

Round of 16 Predictions

PAR Paraguay vs FRA France France (79%)
✓ Correct — FT: 0-1, France advances
💡 France is favored at 79% and leads 4/6 dimensions (Finishing, Creation, Control, Pressing). Paraguay has edges in Defense, Physicality. Both signals align — clear advantage for France.
DimensionWeightParaguayFranceEdge
Finishing25%26.069.8France
Defense25%138.6130.9Paraguay
Control20%94.8152.0France
Creation15%76.0167.5France
Pressing10%105.0141.3France
Physicality5%182.8134.5Paraguay
Paraguay leads 2/6 dimensions · France leads 4/6 dimensions · 0 even
CAN Canada vs MAR Morocco TOSS-UP (50%-50%)
✗ Called toss-up but Morocco won convincingly — FT: 0-3
💡 Pure coin flip. Probability is 50%-50% (within 2% margin). Canada leads 3 dimensions, Morocco leads 1. No meaningful edge for either side.
DimensionWeightCanadaMoroccoEdge
Finishing25%42.541.8Even
Defense25%142.4136.6Even
Control20%131.1171.5Morocco
Creation15%173.5159.0Canada
Pressing10%157.8132.0Canada
Physicality5%155.8146.1Canada
Canada leads 3/6 dimensions · Morocco leads 1/6 dimensions · 2 even
BRA Brazil vs NOR Norway Brazil (66%)
✗ Wrong — FT: 1-2, Norway advances
💡 Brazil is favored at 66% and leads 6/6 dimensions (Finishing, Creation, Control, Defense, Physicality, Pressing). Norway has edges in none. Both signals align — clear advantage for Brazil.
DimensionWeightBrazilNorwayEdge
Finishing25%52.248.1Brazil
Defense25%142.999.2Brazil
Control20%160.2132.5Brazil
Creation15%190.2125.9Brazil
Pressing10%128.3118.0Brazil
Physicality5%138.4128.0Brazil
Brazil leads 6/6 dimensions · Norway leads 0/6 dimensions · 0 even
MEX Mexico vs ENG England England (54%)
✓ Correct — FT: 2-3, England advances
💡 England is favored at 54% and leads 4/6 dimensions (Creation, Control, Physicality, Pressing). Mexico has edges in Finishing. Both signals align — clear advantage for England.
DimensionWeightMexicoEnglandEdge
Finishing25%54.737.3Mexico
Defense25%133.8128.8Even
Control20%122.9158.8England
Creation15%110.8192.0England
Pressing10%121.5145.2England
Physicality5%138.6151.6England
Mexico leads 1/6 dimensions · England leads 4/6 dimensions · 1 even
POR Portugal vs ESP Spain Spain (69%)
✓ Correct — FT: 0-1, Spain advances
💡 Spain is favored at 69% and leads 6/6 dimensions (Finishing, Creation, Control, Defense, Physicality, Pressing). Portugal has edges in none. Both signals align — clear advantage for Spain.
DimensionWeightPortugalSpainEdge
Finishing25%33.150.8Spain
Defense25%118.2160.5Spain
Control20%155.9171.0Spain
Creation15%131.4164.8Spain
Pressing10%133.5179.9Spain
Physicality5%130.6141.8Spain
Portugal leads 0/6 dimensions · Spain leads 6/6 dimensions · 0 even
USA USA vs BEL Belgium Belgium (58%)
✓ Correct — FT: 1-4, Belgium advances
💡 Belgium is favored at 58% and leads 5/6 dimensions (Finishing, Creation, Control, Physicality, Pressing). USA has edges in Defense. Both signals align — clear advantage for Belgium.
DimensionWeightUSABelgiumEdge
Finishing25%52.262.2Belgium
Defense25%128.9106.6USA
Control20%140.3154.2Belgium
Creation15%117.2192.0Belgium
Pressing10%131.5160.6Belgium
Physicality5%143.7164.6Belgium
USA leads 1/6 dimensions · Belgium leads 5/6 dimensions · 0 even
ARG Argentina vs EGY Egypt Argentina (66%)
✓ Correct — FT: 3-2, Argentina advances
💡 Argentina is favored at 66% and leads 4/6 dimensions (Finishing, Control, Defense, Pressing). Egypt has edges in Physicality. Both signals align — clear advantage for Argentina.
DimensionWeightArgentinaEgyptEdge
Finishing25%63.229.0Argentina
Defense25%139.0127.9Argentina
Control20%173.4154.9Argentina
Creation15%134.6139.8Even
Pressing10%136.8112.3Argentina
Physicality5%130.3178.7Egypt
Argentina leads 4/6 dimensions · Egypt leads 1/6 dimensions · 1 even
SUI Switzerland vs COL Colombia Switzerland (70%)
✓ Correct — FT: 0-0 (pen 5-3), Switzerland advances
💡 Switzerland is favored at 70% and leads 3/6 dimensions (Finishing, Physicality, Pressing). Colombia has edges in Creation, Control. Both signals align — clear advantage for Switzerland.
DimensionWeightSwitzerlandColombiaEdge
Finishing25%55.313.5Switzerland
Defense25%138.6140.1Even
Control20%139.7153.7Colombia
Creation15%122.8151.1Colombia
Pressing10%137.8120.9Switzerland
Physicality5%151.9115.6Switzerland
Switzerland leads 3/6 dimensions · Colombia leads 2/6 dimensions · 1 even

Quarter-Final Predictions

FRA France vs MAR Morocco TOSS-UP (48%-52%)
DimensionWeightFranceMoroccoEdge
Finishing25%50.863.5Morocco
Defense25%141.4135.3Even
Control20%160.1159.6Even
Creation15%151.6122.8France
Pressing10%152.5127.0France
Physicality5%144.6156.6Morocco
France leads 2/6 dimensions · Morocco leads 2/6 dimensions · 2 even
ESP Spain vs BEL Belgium Belgium (57%)
DimensionWeightSpainBelgiumEdge
Finishing25%39.076.7Belgium
Defense25%154.7118.5Spain
Control20%161.7142.1Spain
Creation15%145.8174.9Belgium
Pressing10%167.3153.2Spain
Physicality5%126.3158.2Belgium
Spain leads 3/6 dimensions · Belgium leads 3/6 dimensions · 0 even
NOR Norway vs ENG England England (55%)
DimensionWeightNorwayEnglandEdge
Finishing25%51.360.9England
Defense25%92.2105.2England
Control20%147.3135.7Norway
Creation15%118.6151.1England
Pressing10%110.1117.0England
Physicality5%125.1146.3England
Norway leads 1/6 dimensions · England leads 5/6 dimensions · 0 even
ARG Argentina vs SUI Switzerland Argentina (71%)
DimensionWeightArgentinaSwitzerlandEdge
Finishing25%62.236.1Argentina
Defense25%131.8139.3Switzerland
Control20%169.3144.8Argentina
Creation15%171.7104.1Argentina
Pressing10%149.4141.6Argentina
Physicality5%132.6157.4Switzerland
Argentina leads 4/6 dimensions · Switzerland leads 2/6 dimensions · 0 even